PhD students like to talk about the fact that there are far more new doctors of philosophy than positions as tenure-track faculty or researchers, so anyone who wants a job like that has to follow a series of very specific and demanding steps, with a high chance of finding themself stuck in a poorly paid, overworked position as a sessional instructor or post-doctoral researcher. Unfortunately, hard numbers are hard to come by, and naturally the people who are very successful or very unhappy have the loudest voices. The people who are most active in complaining about the problem tend to be Americans, and the situation in that country has some special features. Back in 2013, I estimated that about four people got a PhD in history in Canada for every tenured professor who retired, and made some choices accordingly.
Recently, the University of British Columbia published a survey of 3,805 students who graduated UBC with a PhD between 2003 and 2015. Through a combination of mail, email, and online searches, they were able to find some information about 91% of these students. A summary is posted at http://outcomes.grad.ubc.ca/
I am sure that some will criticize the report as being too positive, and argue that the graduates who did not reply are likely to be in the most difficult situations. On the other hand, I think it gives a good idea of the number of graduates who end up teaching at a university, and of how their careers vary from field to field. Academics more or less need a web presence (even if it is simply a page with their office and photograph put up by the university) so whatever the uncontacted 9% were doing, it was probably not teaching at a university.
I hope that other universities imitate UBC. In the age of social networks and online contacts pages, there is no need to pretend that it is hard to find students a few years after they graduate. While this might mean that some graduate programs have difficulty finding students, and that research in some fields becomes more expensive, it is hard to reconcile a commitment to academic rigour and open sharing of results with the idea that graduates should learn about their career prospects through the rumour mill and folk wisdom (and as long as people can still find editors willing to let them publish an essay about the “need to train more PhDs,” people will need to keep pushing back and asking for evidence).
Some people’s woeful lamentations about graduate school make me feel a little uncomfortable: most of the athletic and artistic people whom I know can’t make a living off their vocation, even if they won a series of prizes and grants and scholarships which let them hope that they could find a way. Many of my older friends were not able to spent many years at university studying something that they love, and people in graduate school tend to have more resources with which to defend their interests than, for example, most workers in restaurants. However, many aspects of academe are exploitative, whether the labs which depend on underpaid students and post-docs working 70-hour weeks to fund a handful of professors’ careers as managers and grant-writers, or the large companies which have bought up academic presses and squeeze all the money out of them that they can. And prospective students deserve to have evidence about their career prospects.
Further Reading: The Chronicle of Higher Education‘s JobTracker project took the reverse approach: given 2500 jobs as associate professor (ie. a full-time faculty member with a route to tenure) in mathematics, the humanities, and social sciences in the USA and Canada in 2013 and 2014, what kind of people took them? http://www.chronicle.com/article/On-the-Academic-Job-Market/233683
There are now many resources online talking about the whole range of careers which people pursue after graduate school. One that I found helpful and healthy is Jennifer Polk’s From PhD to Life (and it is Canadian content, which does not hurt). If any current or prospective graduate students have not found that kind of resource, and would like other suggestions, please let me know in the comments. I try not to give unsolicited advice, because I find that such advice says more about the person giving it than the world.